Mental Models and Decision Making

How We Really Think Under Pressure

Why judgement fails, how models shape behaviour, and where decision making authority really sits

Why Mental Models And Decision Making Break Down In Real Situations

Mental models are high level representations of how thing work and mental models and decision making are often presented as if they naturally fit together, as though understanding good models leads directly to better choices.

The assumption is simple: learn the right frameworks, and your decisions will improve. But, in practice, this is not what happens.

People can understand powerful ideas such as Incentives, Inversion, or Circle of Competence, and still make decisions that contradict those very models.

In many cases, they recognise the mistake almost immediately afterwards, which makes the gap between knowledge and behaviour even more apparent.

The issue is not a lack of understanding. It is that, in the moment of decision, something else takes over.

To understand this properly, it is necessary to move away from how decisions are described in theory and look instead at how they unfold in real time, particularly under pressure.

When you do this, a different picture emerges. Mental models are still present, but they are no longer the primary drivers of behaviour.

What matters more is where control over the decision actually sits in that moment.

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What Decision Making Feels Like In Practice

In calm conditions, decision making appears deliberate and structured. There is time to think, to consider options, and to weigh consequences. Under these conditions, it is relatively easy to believe that decisions are guided by reasoning and supported by the models we have learned.

However, this changes significantly under pressure.

In real situations, decisions often begin with a single thought that carries urgency. It may take the form of “this needs to be dealt with now” or “I just need to act and move things forward.”

That urgent thought does not present itself as one option among many. It presents itself as something that requires immediate action.

What is striking is how quickly behaviour can follow.

• There is often little or no conscious pause between the appearance of the thought and the action that follows.
• Only afterwards, when the situation has stabilised, does reflection occur.
• At that point, it may become clear that the decision was not well considered, even though the knowledge to make a better decision was already available.

This experience is common and consistent.

The important point is not that people fail to think. It is that thinking is not always in control at the moment when action is taken.

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What Is Actually Happening In That Moment

To understand this shift, it helps to look closely at what is happening at the point where action occurs.

• In those moments, the key difference is not the absence of knowledge, but the absence of a deliberate pause.
• The decision is not being made from a position of reflection.
• Instead, it is being driven directly by the urgency of the thought itself.

This is where the gap in mental models and decision making becomes visible in practice. This leads to a useful and practical distinction. Decision making authority refers to where the final control over action sits at the moment of choice.

• Reflective Response - In some situations, that control sits with reflective judgement, where there is enough space to consider the situation. 
• Impulsive Reaction - In other situations, it sits with the most immediate and emotionally charged thought, where action follows quickly and automatically.

The broader concept of mental authority describes this overall position of control. It refers to where decision making power is currently located in the mind. This is not fixed. It can shift rapidly, often without being noticed.

• The default position is that this authority is easily captured by urgency. 
• Thoughts arrive quickly, they carry emotional weight, and they create a sense that action is required. 
• Because of this, decision making authority is often handed over to those thoughts automatically. 

When that happens, behaviour is driven by the strongest signal in the moment, rather than by structured reasoning or by the mental models a person understands.

The Role Of Mental Models In This Process

Where mental models actually sit in this process

Mental models play an important role, but not in the way they are often assumed to.

They do not sit at the point where action is decided. Instead, they operate earlier, at the level of interpretation.

They shape how a situation is understood and how information is organised.

Within mental models and decision making, models shape interpretation, but not necessarily action. For example:

• The model of "Incentives" helps to explain why people behave in ways that reflect underlying reward structures.
• "Circle of Competence" clarifies the boundary between what is understood and what lies outside that understanding. 
  
• Heuristics explains why the brain relies on shortcuts when processing information, and 
  
• Compounding highlights how small actions accumulate over time into significant outcomes.

All of these models influence perception. They affect what is noticed and how it is interpreted. However, they do not automatically determine behaviour.

Between interpretation and action there is a critical transition point, and that transition is governed by where decision making authority settles in that moment.

• If authority is held at a reflective level, these models can be accessed and used.
• If authority is captured by urgency, they are effectively bypassed, regardless of how well they are understood.

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What Changes Under Pressure

Under pressure, the conditions that support reflective judgement begin to weaken. Attention narrows, the perceived need for speed increases, and emotional signals become more prominent.

This combination creates an environment in which rapid action feels both necessary and justified.

Under pressure, mental models and decision making often diverge sharply. Several mental models become particularly visible at this point.

 

• The idea captured by Iatrogenics - Do Something Syndrome describes the tendency to act simply to relieve discomfort, even when action may introduce new problems. The immediate sense of relief becomes more compelling than the quality of the decision.
• The concept behind Black Swans also becomes relevant, as uncertainty and unpredictability distort perception. Events that are unclear or unusual can trigger disproportionate responses, leading to decisions that prioritise speed over understanding.
• At the same time, models such as Inversion, which encourage the consideration of potential downsides, are often absent. The question “what could go wrong?” is replaced by a focus on immediate action.

These shifts do not reflect a lack of intelligence or capability. They reflect a change in where decision making authority is held.

When authority is no longer anchored in reflection, behaviour becomes aligned with urgency rather than with understanding.

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Simple Illustration — how models are bypassed 

Consider a manager under pressure to demonstrate progress on a struggling project. There is scrutiny from above and a strong need to show that action is being taken. In that environment, a thought arises that the situation must be addressed immediately.

• The manager moves quickly to implement a visible change. In doing so, several mental models that would normally guide better judgement are bypassed.
• The decision extends beyond the manager's "Circle of Competence", the "Incentives" driving the action shift toward short-term visibility rather than long-term effectiveness, and the potential risks are not examined through "Inversion".
• The intervention, rather than resolving the issue, introduces additional complications, illustrating the effect described by "Iatrogenics — Do Something Syndrome".

Afterwards, it may be clear that a more measured approach would have been better.

The important point is that the relevant models were already known. They were simply not active at the point where the decision was made, because decision making authority had already shifted to urgency.

Why Knowledge Does Not Translate Into Behaviour

This pattern explains why people often experience a gap between understanding and action. It is common to hear statements such as “I know what I should do, but I don’t do it.” This is not a contradiction once the underlying mechanism is understood.

This is the critical distinction in mental models and decision making - understanding does not determine behaviour; authority does.

• Mental models operate at the level of understanding.
• Behaviour is determined at the point of action.
• That point is governed by where decision making authority sits in the moment.

If authority is captured by urgency, behaviour will follow the most immediate signals, regardless of what is known.

If authority is held at a reflective level, behaviour can align more closely with understanding.

The difference between these two states is not knowledge. It is control - which part of your brain is running your life at that critical moment of decision.

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The Alternative To Automatic Reaction - Authority Above Thought

There is an alternative to the default pattern of automatic reaction. Zen Tools refers to this as Authority Above Thought.

• In practical terms, this does not involve suppressing thoughts or eliminating pressure.
• It involves a shift in where decision making authority is held.
• This is where mental models and decision making must be understood differently.
  
• Instead of allowing the first urgent thought to determine action, authority is deliberately held at a level where a brief pause becomes possible.
• In that pause, the thought is still present, but it is no longer automatically followed.
• This creates space for the situation to be seen more clearly.

Once that space exists, mental models can become active again. You can recognise "Incentives", check your "Circle of Competence", and apply "Inversion".

The models themselves have not changed. What has changed is that they are now accessible at the point where decisions are made.

If you want to explore this further: Authority Above Thought

Worksheet: Action Steps For Relocating Decision Making Authority Above Thought

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Supporting The Shift - Locking In The Gains

In some situations, there is a clear moment where the automatic pattern is interrupted. Urgency is recognised, and instead of acting immediately, decision making is no longer fully dictated by the first available thought.

However, this shift is often unstable.

The pressure remains, the thought is still active, and there is a strong tendency for control to revert back to the automatic system.

This is where the Zen Tools protocol of Locking In The Gains becomes relevant.

Locking In The Gains is not the interruption of the automatic pattern of impulisve reaction. It is the stabilisation protocol used when decision making authority has already been, even briefly, relocated above the immediate thought or urge, but is at risk of collapsing back under pressure.

The core mechanism is reinforcement. In practical terms, this means:

• Invoking the power and support of a source of authority that sits beyond the thought stream and  impulse driven reactions 
• That is aligned with the reflective brain.
• That supports reflective control.

That source of authority must meet three conditions.

• It must sit beyond the immediate thought-stream and not be part of the reactive pattern. 
• It must be credible and meaningful to the individual, rather than theoretical or imposed. 
• And it must align with reflective decision making, not with urgency or short-term relief.

The form may vary - for example it may be Christian, secular, or Buddhist - but the mechanism is consistent: authority is reinforced by invoking something more stable and credible than the urgent thought.

Once the stability of decision making authority is in place, behaviour can begin to align more reliably with understanding, and mental models can become usable again in real time.

If you want to explore this further:  Locking In The Gains

Worksheet: Action Steps For Authority Above Thought - Locking In The Gains

Closing Reflections on Mental Models and Decision Making

Closing Reflections

Mental models are often treated as the foundation of good decision making, but in practice they are only part of the picture.

They shape how situations are interpreted, but they do not determine what happens next. The decisive factor is whether those models are available at the moment of action.

Under pressure, decisions tend to compress. Urgency narrows attention, accelerates thinking, and creates the sense that immediate action is required.

In that state, even well-understood models can become inaccessible, not because they are forgotten, but because decision making authority has already shifted to the strongest and fastest signals in the moment.

The real issue in mental models and decision making is not knowledge, but access under pressure.

When authority is held above that urgency, even briefly, the situation changes. The same models that were previously bypassed become usable again.

This is not about acquiring more knowledge. It is about creating the conditions in which existing knowledge can operate.

The practical question is not whether you understand mental models, but whether you can access them when pressure is present.

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Points for Reflection

1. In which situations do you most often act before you have fully considered the implications?
2. Which mental models do you understand well but find difficult to apply in real time?
3. What does urgency feel like just before it drives action in your own experience?
4. Can you identify the moment when a thought begins to feel like a command rather than a suggestion?
5. What changes when you allow even a brief pause before responding?

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Action Points

1. When a situation feels urgent, explicitly recognise the presence of urgency before acting
2. Treat thoughts as signals rather than instructions, especially when they carry emotional weight
3. Create a short pause to allow decision making authority to stabilise above immediate reactions
4. Ask what you would decide if the pressure to act quickly were not present
5. Choose the smallest deliberate action available rather than defaulting to the fastest response

Academic References 

• Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow.
• Gigerenzer, G. (2007). Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious.
• Thaler, R.H. & Sunstein, C.R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness.
• Taleb, N.N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

Recommended Further Reading

• Charlie Munger - The Importance Of Thinking Skills And Mental Models
• Why Insight Alone Does Not Change Behaviour
• Not Every Urge Is a Decision
• The Long Game
• Outcome Over Optics

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