Ergodicity is an ugly word from the world of mathematics. It is an umbrella term for two sets of conditions of probability and outcome.
These two conditions form the basis of a lie that you have been sold by governments, economists and investment "advisors" for the past 150 years.
Ergodicity matters, and is a major factor in your long term health, wealth and peace of mind.
What may seem to be a dry and boring exercise in semantics and mathematical fancy footwork very rapidly morphs into:
This is about:
The two conditions of ergodicity are: [1] Ergodic systems and processes - where there is a consistency of outcome. [2] Non-ergodic systems and processes - where there is a certainty of extreme variation. We
all want to be enjoying the certainty offered by the first condition,
but in reality are flying blind on the roller coaster ghost train of the
second.
The failure of the "experts" to understand the core characteristics of what is required to achieve a consistent outcome and to disregard the certainty of extreme variation means that your long term health, wealth and peace of mind are at risk.
You think I exaggerate? Reflect on this:
At the end of this article I have included a bibliography of some of the sources I have used in research into ergodocity. As you will see most, if not all, of the material on this subject is written for the investment community and the terminology used and the illustrations given reflect that.
The result of this is that much of this material is impenetrable to the lay reader.
This is unfortunate because these concepts are - at root - fairly straight forward, and have universal application.
Having said all that, I am reasonably bright and it took me about three working days of study and reflection to get to a position of being able to reframe these ideas in a way that makes them easy for the lay reader to understand and apply.
We are going to look at
So here goes:
Unless a system or a process can demonstrably meet all of these criteria then there can be no certainty of a consistent outcome.
Every article I have read on ergodicity tries to illustrate the conditions with thought experiments based on russian roulette and games of chance, and they focus on the probability of different outcomes.
But, in common with many readers, I do not gamble so I find these illustrations hard to relate to.
The only area in life which does fully conform to these criteria is in the application of the laws of Newtonian Physics and Classical Mechanics namely: gravity, motion,
space, time, mass, force, momentum, torque, and angular momentum.
How can we achieve a consistency of outcomes against the certainty of extreme variations?
As we have already established above, once we move away from newtonian physics and classical mechanics it is impossible to achieve a 100% consistency of outcome in any area of life.
So the blunt and scary reality is that we face extreme variation in most, if not all, areas of life together with the consequences.
The most obvious example of extreme variation is your mortality. You are going to die. The only unknowns are how and when.
Fortunately, there are a wide range of practical steps that you can take to mitigate the risk of these extreme variations and to position yourself to make massive gains - whenever possible - when they do occur.
In the example of your mortality, whilst you can't avoid it you can take steps to mitigate the effects of this extreme outcome and ensure that your loved ones and dependents are financially protected by having adequate life insurance in place.
Here are two guiding principles drawn from the work of Nassim Taleb [whose work is featured on this site and which I commend to you]:
[1] Learn to perceive the world as it really is - and not to delude yourself into seeing it in the manner that makes you feel most comfortable.
[2] Make decisions that focus on the consequences - which you can know - and not on the probability of an event - which you cannot know.
Bibliography
Further Reading:
How Positive Asymmetry Can Transform Your Life
How To Benefit From The Unseen Margins
Next Article: Dealing With Imposter Syndrome
Return from "Ergodicity" to: Walking The Talk
Or to: Mental Models
- What if everything we think…
LATEST ARTICLES
The Balanced Brain - The Ultimate Route To Personal Transformation
How To Experience The Benefits Of A Balanced Brain. Underpinning all of the belief systems and practices that offer routes to personal change, transformation and spiritual growth is the balanced brain…
How To Make Better Decisions - By Avoiding The Narrative Trap
To Understand The Truth We Have To See The Whole Picture. One of the best ways to make better decisions is to have a deeper understanding of the many things that might stop that happening. To understa…
The Greatest Love - The Most Important Relationship You Will Ever Have
Yet Most Will Never Know It Everyone of us has a place, in our hearts there's a space, that is home to the greatest love of all. This love transcends everything we think we know about the world of for…
Everything Is Connected And Why You Don't Feel It
...And Why It Matters
As human beings we are skating on very thin ice with our sense of self and certainty about "how things are" and what we like to think of as reality:
Who Is In Charge Of Your Brain?
How Not To Be Stupid. Who is in charge of your brain? This is not a silly questions. It matters because the outcomes that you experience in your life are determined by how you respond to the events th…
How To Be A Winner On A Very Large Scale
The Incredible Benefits Of Selective Attention. This is not a typical article about how to be a winner. We are not going to talk about goal setting, the importance of habits, the power of focus and al…
The Metagame Approach To Life
How To Achieve Your Biggest Objectives.
The metagame approach to life is all about winning and achieving your biggest objectives by:
- Understanding the bigger picture
- Being better by doing things d…Shantideva - The Way Of The Bodhisattva
Walking The Path Of Compassion. Shantideva the 8th century Indian Buddhist sage is famous for his treatise "The Way of the Bodhisattva" delivered as an extended teaching to the monks of Nalanda monast…
Reframing History - Deconstruction And Discussion Not Destruction
History is always about context, not imposing our own moral values on the past. For those of us fortunate enough to live within western democracies, we are living in an age where a vociferous and into…
Tao Te Ching - Connecting To Your True Source Of Power.
How To Be Lived By The Tao. The Tao Te Ching is one of those books that many people read, few understand, and even fewer put into practice. The only way to know the Tao is to experience it, and it is…
How Things Really Are - The Inbuilt Design Flaws
Chaos, Disorder And Decay Is The Natural Order Of Things. Nobody has the perfect life. We all struggle and strive to attain health, wealth and personal happiness. Yet these three big areas: our health…
Intuition Or Anxiety - Are There Angels Or Devils Crawling Here?
How To Tell The Difference Between Intuition and Anxiety. How do you know whether the voice of your intuition is real or just the product of your inner anxiety? Several months ago I was having a drink…
What Is Truth - How To Tell A Partial Truth From The Whole Truth?
How the truth and nothing but the truth is often not the whole truth. My great aunty Flo broke her arm and died. It is true that she broke her arm in 1923. It is also true that she died in 1949. But t…
Duality And Life Beyond Your Thinking Mind
Duality and life beyond your thinking mind focuses on the limitations of time, foreground and background, duality and "stuckness". The first aspect of duality and life beyond your thinking mind focuse…
The Conscious Mind Is Limited - Be Aware And Be Prepared
Being aware is the first stage of being prepared. The conscious mind is limited in so many ways. There are some who would argue that there is no such thing as conscious thought and that it is represen…
Your Inner Map Of Reality - Here's Why You Think The Way You Do
The big picture of how your inner map of reality creates your feelings, thoughts, and behaviours. Your inner map of reality is based on the filters of your own ethnic, national, social, family and rel…
The Failure Of Cancel Culture - Suppression Not Engagement
Why we need to wear our beliefs lightly and develop negative capability. Throughout history people have campaigned to fight beliefs, ideologies, and injustices that they perceived to be oppressive, di…
4 Big Reasons Why We Get Stuck In Our Attempts At Personal Change
Most People Spend Their Entire Life Imprisoned Within The Confines Of Their Own Thoughts. This first of the 4 big reasons why we get stuck is, in my view, the most important. The "self-help industry…
How Do I Change And Why Is It So Hard?
We Would Rather Die Than Change, And We Usually Do In my experience, the vast majority of people who say they want to change don’t change. Most people reading this won’t change because they don’t real…
The Illusion Of A Separate Self - Windows 11 With Self Awareness!
Beyond the content of your mind you are so much more than you think you are. When we talk of "myself" this is the conventional way of referring to our self image which is in fact the ego's constructio…
Finite And Infinite Games - Dazed, Confused & Ultimately Transcendent
This is not an instruction manual, it is a wake up call!
Over this past week I have read Professor James Carse's highly regarded "Finite And Infinite Games - A Vision Of Life As Play And Possibility"…
The Gap And The Gain - How Your Brain Sabotages Your Happiness
How Your Lizard Brain Sabotages Your Happiness We are hardwired to measure our progress in any and all areas of life where we have goals and aspirations. We can't not do it. But what we measure and ho…
How To Wake Up - 4 Simple Practices To Help You Wake Up Now
So What Exactly Does It Mean to Wake Up - What Is "Enlightenment"? There is nothing magical, mystical or mysterious about waking up we’re actually having glimpses of enlightenment all the time. Enligh…
Situational Communication - Different Strokes For Different Folks
Situational communication is about taking account of 3 often ignored factors about the other person. You are a situational communicator when you recognise that effective communication is not an event…
How To Influence Without Authority - 6 Key Tips
The secret to how to influence without authority is that you get what you really want by giving other people what they really want. We live in an interconnected world and knowing how to influence with…
Change Questions To Change Your Outcomes
Asking The Right Questions Is Critical For A Successful Change. Every time we initiate a significant change - whether in our personal life or in an organisation - we will most likely over-estimate our…
Group Culture - The Invisible Software That Rules Your Life
Group culture is: "How we do things round here". We like to see ourselves as free agents making our own choices and living authentically but the reality is that The Matrix has many layers and we are u…
Why Getting From A to B Is Not Aways A Straight Line
In circumstances of significant change, the progress from A to B will not be in a straight line. We run our lives largely on auto-pilot. In most circumstances your experience of getting from A to B is…
The Art Of Persuasion Planning For Success - Here's How To Do It!
To be successful in the art of persuasion you must ensure that certain things happen. To be successful in the art of persuasion you must establish a framework of what has to happen to get you to that…
The Art Of Persuasion Advanced Communication Skills - Gaining Buyin
Create The Environment Where They Want To Buyin to Your Proposal In order to build the win-win you have to uncover what it is that the other person really wants or needs, and to do that you have to as…