Finding Signal In The Noise
How To Avoid The Noise Bottleneck
The Challenge Of Finding The Signal In The Noise
We are blessed and cursed to live in the digital age. We have access to more information than we can possibly handle yet we struggle to find the signal in the noise.
We are drowning in a tsunami of 24/7 news, a swamp of social media and cesspit of trivia and garbage.
Surface skimming
Like flat stones skimming the surface of a lake, we skim through endless articles and news reports and fill our heads with soundbites. But this is just superficial information and we delude ourselves, and try to delude others, that we know what we are talking about.
But as Shane Parrish puts it:
"...most people are operating on the same level of surface knowledge! So, in a twisted bout of game theory, we are rarely if ever called out on our bullshit (because people fear that we’ll call them out on theirs.)"
We entertain ourselves with social media and clickbait and see it as harmless fun, but it isn't because it fires up the pleasure receptors in our brain and make us temporarily feel good and it is addictive. The more we have of it the more we want.
Like junkies seeking their next fix, we gorge on information, blindly seeking substance beneath the froth and bubble.
Nassim Taleb frames this as striving for "more signal and less noise"
So how do we find the signal in the noise?
The noise bottleneck
In his book Antifragile Taleb makes the following observations:
- We believe that the more information we consume the more signal we receive, but in practical terms this is just not true, it is a cognitive illusion.
- As you consume more data, the ratio of noise to signal increases, the less you really know about what’s going on and the more likely you are to jump to the wrong conclusions and make the wrong decisions.
- "The more frequently you look at data, the more noise you are disproportionally likely to get (rather than the valuable part called the signal); hence the higher the noise to signal ratio."
- Taleb refers to this as "the noise bottleneck".
- Taleb suggests that our brains are not hardwired to extract the signal from the noise and to understand the key point.
- "... in a natural environment, a stressor is information. So too much information would be too much stress..."
- "...so we overreact emotionally to noise."
Nassim Taleb's conclusions
- Access to too much information increases intervention i.e. the "do something syndrome" - taking action makes us feel better because it makes us feel in control.
- Too much information causes us stress and we over-react, e.g. the panic-buying of various household items during the recent pandemic. Taleb notes how the media glorifies the anecdote.
- We need far less information and less frequently.
- We should ignore small changes in data measured over short periods of time and should only look at very large changes in data or conditions.
Know What To Ignore And Where To Focus Your Attention
Nassim Taleb offers a big picture perspective on finding the signal in the noise and one that resonates with me.
During the recent pandemic I found it very frustrating trying to get solid facts and reliable data and I came to the same conclusions as Taleb [although without his technical knowledge and expertise].
I learned to disregard the media and to seek out and focus on solid, evidence based, data provided by independent research organisations and the UK Government's Office of National Statistics.
But even with this data I found that it required a certain level of skill that, as a non-scientifically and statistically trained lay-person, I do not possess to attempt to interpret this data and come to sensible extrapolations and insights.
Fortunately, I found an excellent article by Shane Parrish in which he shared 7 tips on finding the signal in the noise from the late Richard Feynman:
[1] Do they really know what they are talking about?
Feynman suggests asking a series of direct questions, or watching a skillful interviewer asking, until the person doesn't know the answer. The honest person will admit that he/she does not know rather than trying to waffle and avoid a direct answer.
[2] Is it probably true vs. probably false?
This is about dealing with uncertainty, and here Feynman suggests testing the information with 2 different theories in a number of different scenarios to see which is stronger. The idea is to evaluate each theory in each scenario to find a balance of probability of it being true, until one theory emerges as "probably true".
[3] A prediction should get stronger with repeat testing.
As we investigate whether something is true or not, Feynman advises that new methods of experimentation and new evidence should show the predicted outcome as getting stronger and not weaker.
[4] Ask is it PROBABLE not is it POSSIBLE.
Feynman says that we have to ask the right question. So often we ask "Is this possible?" But Feynman says that we should ask: "Is this really the case? [Or "Is this how it is?"]
[5] You can only judge probability before it has happened.
Feynman is very clear that it is an error to base a conclusion on the probability of something based on what has already happened. You can only infer probability before it has happened.
[6] Anecdotes are not data.
Contrary to the way in which the media and popular opinion present inferences and "conclusions" based on anecdotes as certainties, Feynman is very clear that you need to use statistically sound sampling to arrive at 99% certainty, and this would require a sample size of 10,000 units or 10,000 attempts to replicate the prediction.
[7] The Rumsfeld factor
Feynman reminds us that many errors are caused because of missing information. I was never a fan of the politics of the late former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, but I always think he made a lot of sense when he said:
Further Reading:
- Iatrogenics - Do Something Syndrome
- Keeping Things Simple - The Art of Knowing What To Overlook
- Asking The Right Questions - How To Avoid Wonky Thinking
- Discernment - Exercising Good Judgement
Next Article: The Checklist Manifesto - Your Personal Safety Net
Return from "Finding Signal In The Noise to": Walking The Talk
Or to: Mental Models
- What if everything we think…
LATEST ARTICLES
The Balanced Brain - The Ultimate Route To Personal Transformation
How To Experience The Benefits Of A Balanced Brain. Underpinning all of the belief systems and practices that offer routes to personal change, transformation and spiritual growth is the balanced brain…How To Make Better Decisions - By Avoiding The Narrative Trap
To Understand The Truth We Have To See The Whole Picture. One of the best ways to make better decisions is to have a deeper understanding of the many things that might stop that happening. To understa…The Greatest Love - The Most Important Relationship You Will Ever Have
Yet Most Will Never Know It Everyone of us has a place, in our hearts there's a space, that is home to the greatest love of all. This love transcends everything we think we know about the world of for…Everything Is Connected And Why You Don't Feel It
...And Why It Matters
As human beings we are skating on very thin ice with our sense of self and certainty about "how things are" and what we like to think of as reality:
Who Is In Charge Of Your Brain?
How Not To Be Stupid. Who is in charge of your brain? This is not a silly questions. It matters because the outcomes that you experience in your life are determined by how you respond to the events th…How To Be A Winner On A Very Large Scale
The Incredible Benefits Of Selective Attention. This is not a typical article about how to be a winner. We are not going to talk about goal setting, the importance of habits, the power of focus and al…The Metagame Approach To Life
How To Achieve Your Biggest Objectives.
The metagame approach to life is all about winning and achieving your biggest objectives by:
- Understanding the bigger picture
- Being better by doing things d…Shantideva - The Way Of The Bodhisattva
Walking The Path Of Compassion. Shantideva the 8th century Indian Buddhist sage is famous for his treatise "The Way of the Bodhisattva" delivered as an extended teaching to the monks of Nalanda monast…Reframing History - Deconstruction And Discussion Not Destruction
History is always about context, not imposing our own moral values on the past. For those of us fortunate enough to live within western democracies, we are living in an age where a vociferous and into…Tao Te Ching - Connecting To Your True Source Of Power.
How To Be Lived By The Tao. The Tao Te Ching is one of those books that many people read, few understand, and even fewer put into practice. The only way to know the Tao is to experience it, and it is…How Things Really Are - The Inbuilt Design Flaws
Chaos, Disorder And Decay Is The Natural Order Of Things. Nobody has the perfect life. We all struggle and strive to attain health, wealth and personal happiness. Yet these three big areas: our health…Intuition Or Anxiety - Are There Angels Or Devils Crawling Here?
How To Tell The Difference Between Intuition and Anxiety. How do you know whether the voice of your intuition is real or just the product of your inner anxiety? Several months ago I was having a drink…What Is Truth - How To Tell A Partial Truth From The Whole Truth?
How the truth and nothing but the truth is often not the whole truth. My great aunty Flo broke her arm and died. It is true that she broke her arm in 1923. It is also true that she died in 1949. But t…Duality And Life Beyond Your Thinking Mind
Duality and life beyond your thinking mind focuses on the limitations of time, foreground and background, duality and "stuckness". The first aspect of duality and life beyond your thinking mind focuse…The Conscious Mind Is Limited - Be Aware And Be Prepared
Being aware is the first stage of being prepared. The conscious mind is limited in so many ways. There are some who would argue that there is no such thing as conscious thought and that it is represen…Your Inner Map Of Reality - Here's Why You Think The Way You Do
The big picture of how your inner map of reality creates your feelings, thoughts, and behaviours. Your inner map of reality is based on the filters of your own ethnic, national, social, family and rel…The Failure Of Cancel Culture - Suppression Not Engagement
Why we need to wear our beliefs lightly and develop negative capability. Throughout history people have campaigned to fight beliefs, ideologies, and injustices that they perceived to be oppressive, di…4 Big Reasons Why We Get Stuck In Our Attempts At Personal Change
Most People Spend Their Entire Life Imprisoned Within The Confines Of Their Own Thoughts. This first of the 4 big reasons why we get stuck is, in my view, the most important. The "self-help industry…How Do I Change And Why Is It So Hard?
We Would Rather Die Than Change, And We Usually Do In my experience, the vast majority of people who say they want to change don’t change. Most people reading this won’t change because they don’t real…The Illusion Of A Separate Self - Windows 11 With Self Awareness!
Beyond the content of your mind you are so much more than you think you are. When we talk of "myself" this is the conventional way of referring to our self image which is in fact the ego's constructio…Finite And Infinite Games - Dazed, Confused & Ultimately Transcendent
This is not an instruction manual, it is a wake up call!
Over this past week I have read Professor James Carse's highly regarded "Finite And Infinite Games - A Vision Of Life As Play And Possibility"…The Gap And The Gain - How Your Brain Sabotages Your Happiness
How Your Lizard Brain Sabotages Your Happiness We are hardwired to measure our progress in any and all areas of life where we have goals and aspirations. We can't not do it. But what we measure and ho…How To Wake Up - 4 Simple Practices To Help You Wake Up Now
So What Exactly Does It Mean to Wake Up - What Is "Enlightenment"? There is nothing magical, mystical or mysterious about waking up we’re actually having glimpses of enlightenment all the time. Enligh…Situational Communication - Different Strokes For Different Folks
Situational communication is about taking account of 3 often ignored factors about the other person. You are a situational communicator when you recognise that effective communication is not an event…How To Influence Without Authority - 6 Key Tips
The secret to how to influence without authority is that you get what you really want by giving other people what they really want. We live in an interconnected world and knowing how to influence with…Change Questions To Change Your Outcomes
Asking The Right Questions Is Critical For A Successful Change. Every time we initiate a significant change - whether in our personal life or in an organisation - we will most likely over-estimate our…Group Culture - The Invisible Software That Rules Your Life
Group culture is: "How we do things round here". We like to see ourselves as free agents making our own choices and living authentically but the reality is that The Matrix has many layers and we are u…Why Getting From A to B Is Not Aways A Straight Line
In circumstances of significant change, the progress from A to B will not be in a straight line. We run our lives largely on auto-pilot. In most circumstances your experience of getting from A to B is…The Art Of Persuasion Planning For Success - Here's How To Do It!
To be successful in the art of persuasion you must ensure that certain things happen. To be successful in the art of persuasion you must establish a framework of what has to happen to get you to that…The Art Of Persuasion Advanced Communication Skills - Gaining Buyin
Create The Environment Where They Want To Buyin to Your Proposal In order to build the win-win you have to uncover what it is that the other person really wants or needs, and to do that you have to as…