Hanlons Razor
Never Attribute To Malice That Which Can be Explained By Stupidity
Hanlons Razor - Overview
Hanlons razor is attributed to Robert J. Hanlon who was a computer programmer at the Tobyhanna
Army Depot in Scranton, Pennsylvania. He read “Murphy’s Law” by
Arthur Bloch [1978] and submitted the phrase for inclusion in the follow-up version in 1980.
Variation of this phrase have been in circulation for hundreds of yearsand has been attributed to as diverse a range of people as David Hume, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Shakespeare, Ayn Rand, Napolean, and Margaret Thatcher's press secretary Bernard Ingham; however the saying presented in this format is attributed to Robert J. Hanlon.
I am rather drawn to a more comprehensive variation of the razor which was posted in 2009 on the online forum LessWrong:
What is a razor?
In philosophical debate a razor is an abductive rule of thumb or heuristic that infers that unlikely predictions, or explanations, are to be "shaved off" on balance of probability.
Hanlon's razor can be regarded as a social application of Occams Razor which states that: "The best explanation is the one that requires you to make the fewest possible assumptions about what's involved."
Applying Hanlon’s Razor
Applying Hanlon’s Razor will check your natural tendency to make an assumption and quickly jump to the wrong conclusion that something your way is the result of an intentional malicious action.
Avoiding wishful thinking
It is human nature to expect that things will always work out as we want them to. But statistically this is very unlikely.
- Successful outcomes are outliers - the exception - rather than the rule.
- Failure is the norm.
In Why Embracing Failure And Uncertainty Is The Better Option we observed that:
"... in the face of this crushing reality, isn’t it odd that we bury failure and deny its existence by refusing to talk about it, rather than being inquisitive and seeking to learn from it?"
Perhaps its not so odd when we consider that our minds are automatically programmed to create what we perceive to be MY life that comes all nicely packaged up with clear boundaries that define my sense of who I am and how things are.
Dealing with "Windows 10"
Think of your ego as your own internal Windows 10. Its role is to control, and it thinks it does (or should) control everything. [Which is of course a major delusion]
How things ought to be
Your ego has a very clear idea of how things ought to be and it is always craving a credible and coherent story which places you at the centre of everything. As far as your ego is concerned, you are not only at the centre of the universe you are the universe.
Correlation and causation
A key part of that story telling mechanism is your ego's innate capacity to associate a connection where there is none, and to find a pattern in events when there is none. Your ego attributes a correlation or causation that just not exist.
Examples
For example, you arrange to meet a business colleague or a friend and they message you at the minute to cancel. More emotively, you have a meeting arranged with your boss and it is unexpectedly canceled just as you are traveling to the office to meet him/her.
In each of these instances the immediate reaction will most likely be to assume some malicious intent: your friend or colleague just couldn't be bothered or had a better offer, your boss just isn't that interested in seeing you...
The more rational and likely explanation in each case is
that there was a very pressing reason for the last minute change of
plans, and it had nothing whatsoever to do with you.
Applying Hanlon's Razor will cause you to take a deep breath, take a step back, and step right out of the story your ego is already creating, and consider the situation from other perspectives and to adopt a more neutral tone while you evaluate the situation.
Cognitive biases and distortions
The default position of your negative thinking patterns reinforce negative emotions and thoughts and, during difficult circumstances, these distorted thoughts can lead to cognitive distortions - which are irrational thought patterns that cause you to to perceive reality inaccurately.
Applying Hanlons Razor will help you to avoid getting caught up in these unhelpful distortions and biases.
Typical examples of this cognitive distortions are:
- Confirmation Bias - Seeing what you want to see, and selecting and acting upon information that confirms your existing beliefs.
- Fundamental Attribution Error - Overemphasizing personal characteristics and ignoring situational factors in judging others’ behaviour.
- Availability Bias - Making decisions based upon your ease and speed of recall of what you think are comparable situations or examples.
The benefits of applying Hanlons Razor
- Good communication
- Better relationships
- Holistic perspective
The effect of not applying Hanlons Razor
- Negativity
- Overthinking
- Wasting time and energy
Return from "Hanlons Razor" to: Mental Models
- What if everything we think…
LATEST ARTICLES
The Power Of Patience - Why You Need The World's Toughest Quality
Nothing in the world can take the place of patience. Patience and persistence are omnipotent. In everyday life, patience is often overshadowed by the desire for immediate results. We live in an era of…Demonizing The Other and Personal Acts Of Compassion
What Does Demonizing The Other Mean? Demonizing the other refers to the act of portraying a group of people or an individual as inherently evil, threatening, or inferior. It often serves to justify di…Why You Should Embrace Anomalies - The Incredible Value Of Disconfirming Evidence
Is Your Desire To Be Right Greater Than Your Desire To Have Been Right? An anomaly is a deviation from what is expected or commonly regarded as the norm. It often appears as an unexpected observation…Amazing Grace - The Majesty And The Mercy of Freedom From Your Pain
"I once was lost, but now I am found, was blind, but now I see." The hymn and popular song "Amazing Grace" was written 250 years ago by John Newton, a former slave trader who in 1748 nearly died in a…The Transformative Power Of Acceptance
Experience The Power Of Acceptance. This website contains about 500,000 words. You could read every single word and it wouldn't make any real difference to you. You might become better informed, but t…Inversion - The Power Of Opposite Thinking
How To Avoid The Unwanted Outcome. The power of opposite thinking, also known as inversion, lies in its ability to stimulate creativity, enhance problem-solving, and provide a fresh perspective on cha…Are You Aligned With Reality? Or Do You See What You Believe?
We tend to see that which aligns with what we believe, and to act upon that rather than acting on reality. Being aligned with reality starts with a clear and accurate understanding of the world. It me…The Law Of Response and Outcome
A New Approach To A New Life At time of writing we are entering a new year which is traditionally a time of making resolutions to change our behaviour and improve the quality of our lives. And yet pow…Clear Thinking - Turning Ordinary Moments Into Extraordinary Results
There are two ways to handle the world - try to predict, or try to prepare. "Clear Thinking" by Shane Parrish, published in Oct 2023, is a laudable testament to the art of cogent thinking, and will be…Self Dialogue - Working With Your Many Selves
Self Dialogue Is About Working With ALL Levels Of Your Mind. The key to effective self dialogue is to have tools, techniques and resources that work with all levels of your mind. This simple self-faci…The Balanced Brain - The Ultimate Route To Personal Transformation
How To Experience The Benefits Of A Balanced Brain. Underpinning all of the belief systems and practices that offer routes to personal change, transformation and spiritual growth is the balanced brain…How To Make Better Decisions - By Avoiding The Narrative Trap
To Understand The Truth We Have To See The Whole Picture. One of the best ways to make better decisions is to have a deeper understanding of the many things that might stop that happening. To understa…The Greatest Love - The Most Important Relationship You Will Ever Have
Yet Most Will Never Know It Everyone of us has a place, in our hearts there's a space, that is home to the greatest love of all. This love transcends everything we think we know about the world of for…Everything Is Connected And Why You Don't Feel It
...And Why It Matters
As human beings we are skating on very thin ice with our sense of self and certainty about "how things are" and what we like to think of as reality:
Who Is In Charge Of Your Brain?
How Not To Be Stupid. Who is in charge of your brain? This is not a silly questions. It matters because the outcomes that you experience in your life are determined by how you respond to the events th…How To Be A Winner On A Very Large Scale
The Incredible Benefits Of Selective Attention. This is not a typical article about how to be a winner. We are not going to talk about goal setting, the importance of habits, the power of focus and al…The Metagame Approach To Life
How To Achieve Your Biggest Objectives.
The metagame approach to life is all about winning and achieving your biggest objectives by:
- Understanding the bigger picture
- Being better by doing things d…Shantideva - The Way Of The Bodhisattva
Walking The Path Of Compassion. Shantideva the 8th century Indian Buddhist sage is famous for his treatise "The Way of the Bodhisattva" delivered as an extended teaching to the monks of Nalanda monast…Reframing History - Deconstruction And Discussion Not Destruction
History is always about context, not imposing our own moral values on the past. For those of us fortunate enough to live within western democracies, we are living in an age where a vociferous and into…Tao Te Ching - Connecting To Your True Source Of Power.
How To Be Lived By The Tao. The Tao Te Ching is one of those books that many people read, few understand, and even fewer put into practice. The only way to know the Tao is to experience it, and it is…How Things Really Are - The Inbuilt Design Flaws
Chaos, Disorder And Decay Is The Natural Order Of Things. Nobody has the perfect life. We all struggle and strive to attain health, wealth and personal happiness. Yet these three big areas: our health…Intuition Or Anxiety - Are There Angels Or Devils Crawling Here?
How To Tell The Difference Between Intuition and Anxiety. How do you know whether the voice of your intuition is real or just the product of your inner anxiety? Several months ago I was having a drink…What Is Truth - How To Tell A Partial Truth From The Whole Truth?
How the truth and nothing but the truth is often not the whole truth. My great aunty Flo broke her arm and died. It is true that she broke her arm in 1923. It is also true that she died in 1949. But t…Duality And Life Beyond Your Thinking Mind
Duality and life beyond your thinking mind focuses on the limitations of time, foreground and background, duality and "stuckness". The first aspect of duality and life beyond your thinking mind focuse…The Conscious Mind Is Limited - Be Aware And Be Prepared
Being aware is the first stage of being prepared. The conscious mind is limited in so many ways. There are some who would argue that there is no such thing as conscious thought and that it is represen…Your Inner Map Of Reality - Here's Why You Think The Way You Do
The big picture of how your inner map of reality creates your feelings, thoughts, and behaviours. Your inner map of reality is based on the filters of your own ethnic, national, social, family and rel…The Failure Of Cancel Culture - Suppression Not Engagement
Why we need to wear our beliefs lightly and develop negative capability. Throughout history people have campaigned to fight beliefs, ideologies, and injustices that they perceived to be oppressive, di…4 Big Reasons Why We Get Stuck In Our Attempts At Personal Change
Most People Spend Their Entire Life Imprisoned Within The Confines Of Their Own Thoughts. This first of the 4 big reasons why we get stuck is, in my view, the most important. The "self-help industry…How Do I Change And Why Is It So Hard?
We Would Rather Die Than Change, And We Usually Do In my experience, the vast majority of people who say they want to change don’t change. Most people reading this won’t change because they don’t real…The Illusion Of A Separate Self - Windows 11 With Self Awareness!
Beyond the content of your mind you are so much more than you think you are. When we talk of "myself" this is the conventional way of referring to our self image which is in fact the ego's constructio…